The Mekong Delta faces significant challenges in supplying Vietnam and its export market countries with agricultural commodities, while ensuring livelihoods and providing living space to its growing population in the context of climate change and the country’s agrarian transition. Anthropogenic factors, such as the construction of dykes to control river flooding, river sand mining, the further development of triple-cropping rice production, and infrastructure development, together with climate change impacts on sediment and water availability, are all combining to threaten agricultural production. One of the key challenges in sustainable development is the need to identify plausible future states of agricultural-based socio-ecological systems which draw upon differing strategies of land management, and to characterise the impacts of these systems on both the landscape and employment. It was hypothesised from the literature and rapid rural appraisals that each land system can only provide a certain number of jobs, which was further demonstrated using binomial regressions. We show that the odds of being employed are lower for intensive agricultural systems (OR=0.78 for triple rice; 0.91 for intensive aquaculture) than for diversified systems (OR=1.16 for rice-aquaculture; OR=1.63 for mixed fruit trees). Drawing from workshops with local and national stakeholders, we then used Earth observation and national census data in a spatial land use systems dynamic framework to simulate two alternative Mekong Delta futures based upon the climate pathway RCP 4.5 in combination with two existing policies (i) Resolution No. 124 (Specialisation) which promotes triple crop rice and aquaculture intensification and (ii) Resolution No. 639 (Diversification), which states that there should be a development of sustainable rice aquaculture and crop diversification. Based on the quantitative objectives of each policy, we estimated likely changes of services provided by land use systems if either policy were to dominate. The estimated impacts of each future scenario on the provision of employment ultimately indicate that policies with a diversification development paradigm will provide more employment (+0.9%) than policies with a specialisation paradigm (−46%), and that current policies have potentially conflicting consequences. Decisions driving towards intensive farming risk triggering rural unemployment and outmigration, potentially exacerbating urban poverty in major cities such as Can Tho and Ho Chi Minh City. On the other hand, decisions aiming at increasing diversified agricultural systems can help secure more job opportunities. Our results indicate that spatial planning policies should rely on a broad-based assessment of land system services that include employment and environmental impacts to ensure a just transition towards resilient and environmentally sustainable rural territories.

湄公河三角洲面临着向越南及其出口市场国家提供农产品的重大挑战，同时在气候变化和该国农业转型的背景下确保生计并为其不断增长的人口提供生活空间。筑堤防洪、河沙开采、三季稻生产的进一步发展和基础设施建设等人为因素，加上气候变化对泥沙和水资源的影响，都对农业生产构成威胁. 可持续发展的主要挑战之一是需要确定基于农业的社会生态系统的合理未来状态，这些系统利用不同的土地管理战略，并描述这些系统对景观和就业的影响。根据文献和快速农村评估假设，每个土地系统只能提供一定数量的就业机会，并使用二项式回归进一步证明了这一点。我们表明，集约化农业系统（三重稻 OR=0.78；集约化水产养殖 0.91）的就业几率低于多元化系统（水稻-水产养殖 OR=1.16；混合果树 OR=1.63）。根据与地方和国家利益相关者的研讨会，我们随后在空间土地利用系统动态框架中使用地球观测和国家人口普查数据，以模拟基于气候路径 RCP 4.5 并结合两项现有政策的两种替代湄公河三角洲未来 (i) 决议不。促进三季稻和水产养殖集约化的第 124 号决议（专业化）和 (ii) 第 639 号决议（多样化），其中指出应发展可持续的稻米水产养殖和作物多样化。根据每项政策的量化目标，我们估计了如果其中一项政策占主导地位，土地利用系统提供的服务可能发生的变化。每种未来情景对就业提供的估计影响最终表明，具有多元化发展范式的政策将比具有专业化范式的政策（-46%）提供更多的就业（+0.9%），而当前的政策可能会产生相互冲突的后果. 推动集约化农业的决策有引发农村失业和移民的风险，可能会加剧芹苴和胡志明市等主要城市的城市贫困。另一方面，旨在增加多样化农业系统的决策有助于确保更多的就业机会。我们的结果表明，空间规划政策应依赖于对土地系统服务的广泛评估，包括就业和环境影响，以确保向有弹性和环境可持续的农村地区的公正过渡。