What drove inflation so high in 2022? Can it drop rapidly without a recession? The Phillips curve is central to the answers; its proper (nonlinear) specification reveals that the relationship is strong and frequency-dependent, and inflation is very persistent. We embed this empirically-successful Phillips curve – incorporating a supply-shocks variable – into a structural model. Identification is achieved using an underutilized data-dependent method. Despite imposing anchored inflation expectations and a rapid relaxation of supply-chain problems, we find that absent a recession, inflation will be >3% by the end of 2025. A simple welfare analysis supports a mild recession as preferred to an extended period of elevated inflation, under a typical loss function.

是什么导致 2022 年的通胀如此之高？它可以在没有衰退的情况下迅速下降吗？菲利普斯曲线是答案的核心；其适当的（非线性）规范揭示了这种关系很强且依赖于频率，并且通货膨胀非常持久。我们将这条经验上成功的菲利普斯曲线——包含一个供应冲击变量——嵌入到一个结构模型中。识别是使用未充分利用的数据相关方法实现的。尽管强加了锚定的通胀预期和供应链问题的迅速缓解，但我们发现如果没有经济衰退，到 2025 年底通胀将超过 3%。一项简单的福利分析支持温和的经济衰退，而不是长期的高涨在典型的损失函数下的通货膨胀。