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Migration’s contribution to the urban transition: Direct census estimates from Africa and Asia (by Philippe Bocquier, Ashira Menashe-Oren, Wanli Nie)
Demographic Research ( IF 2.005 ) Pub Date : 2023-05-09 , DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.48.24 Philippe Bocquier , Ashira Menashe-Oren , Wanli Nie
Demographic Research ( IF 2.005 ) Pub Date : 2023-05-09 , DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.48.24 Philippe Bocquier , Ashira Menashe-Oren , Wanli Nie
BACKGROUND
The components of urbanisation are important to understand, since urbanisation is closely related to development. Internal migration was key in historical urban transitions, while in contemporary transitions the balance of births and deaths has been the main driver of urbanisation. Reclassification of rural areas and international migration also contribute to urbanisation.
OBJECTIVE
Unlike previous work based on indirectly measured net migration estimates, we directly estimate in- and out-migration rates between rural and urban areas across Africa and Asia by age and sex, and evaluate the contribution of the balance of these flows to urbanisation.
METHODS
We use 67 census samples from IPUMS International for 28 countries in Africa and Asia between 1970 and 2014 to estimate in- and out- migration between rural and urban areas, based on available questions of residence. We then model age- and sex-specific migration rates using Poisson regression and estimate net migration through marginal effects.
RESULTS
Results confirm that, in both continents, urbanisation is not generated by rural-to-urban migration but by the urban population itself, be it through natural growth or through expansion to peripheral areas. In Asia, urbanisation reflects internal migration trends and reclassification decisions to a greater extent than in Africa, where natural growth is the key contributor.
CONCLUSIONS
In Asia, urbanisation reflects internal migration trends and reclassification decisions to a greater extent than in Africa where natural growth is the key contributor.
中文翻译：
移民对城市转型的贡献：来自非洲和亚洲的直接人口普查估计（Philippe Bocquier、Ashira Menashe-Oren、Wanli Nie）
背景技术
了解城市化的组成部分很重要，因为城市化与发展密切相关。内部迁移是历史城市转型的关键，而在当代转型中，出生和死亡的平衡一直是城市化的主要驱动力。农村地区的重新分类和国际移民也有助于城市化。
目标
与之前基于间接测量的净移民估计的工作不同，我们直接按年龄和性别估计非洲和亚洲农村和城市地区之间的迁入和迁出率，并评估这些流动平衡对城市化的贡献。
方法
我们使用 IPUMS International 在 1970 年至 2014 年间针对非洲和亚洲 28 个国家的 67 个人口普查样本，根据可用的居住问题来估计农村和城市地区之间的迁入和迁出。然后，我们使用泊松回归对特定年龄和性别的迁移率进行建模，并通过边际效应估算净迁移率。
结果
结果证实，在两大洲，城市化不是由农村到城市的迁移产生的，而是由城市人口本身产生的，无论是通过自然增长还是通过向周边地区扩张。在亚洲，城市化在更大程度上反映了内部迁移趋势和重新分类决策，而在非洲，自然增长是主要贡献者。
结论
在亚洲，城市化在更大程度上反映了内部迁移趋势和重新分类决策，而在自然增长是主要贡献者的非洲。
更新日期：2023-05-09
The components of urbanisation are important to understand, since urbanisation is closely related to development. Internal migration was key in historical urban transitions, while in contemporary transitions the balance of births and deaths has been the main driver of urbanisation. Reclassification of rural areas and international migration also contribute to urbanisation.
OBJECTIVE
Unlike previous work based on indirectly measured net migration estimates, we directly estimate in- and out-migration rates between rural and urban areas across Africa and Asia by age and sex, and evaluate the contribution of the balance of these flows to urbanisation.
METHODS
We use 67 census samples from IPUMS International for 28 countries in Africa and Asia between 1970 and 2014 to estimate in- and out- migration between rural and urban areas, based on available questions of residence. We then model age- and sex-specific migration rates using Poisson regression and estimate net migration through marginal effects.
RESULTS
Results confirm that, in both continents, urbanisation is not generated by rural-to-urban migration but by the urban population itself, be it through natural growth or through expansion to peripheral areas. In Asia, urbanisation reflects internal migration trends and reclassification decisions to a greater extent than in Africa, where natural growth is the key contributor.
CONCLUSIONS
In Asia, urbanisation reflects internal migration trends and reclassification decisions to a greater extent than in Africa where natural growth is the key contributor.
中文翻译：
移民对城市转型的贡献：来自非洲和亚洲的直接人口普查估计（Philippe Bocquier、Ashira Menashe-Oren、Wanli Nie）
背景技术
了解城市化的组成部分很重要，因为城市化与发展密切相关。内部迁移是历史城市转型的关键，而在当代转型中，出生和死亡的平衡一直是城市化的主要驱动力。农村地区的重新分类和国际移民也有助于城市化。
目标
与之前基于间接测量的净移民估计的工作不同，我们直接按年龄和性别估计非洲和亚洲农村和城市地区之间的迁入和迁出率，并评估这些流动平衡对城市化的贡献。
方法
我们使用 IPUMS International 在 1970 年至 2014 年间针对非洲和亚洲 28 个国家的 67 个人口普查样本，根据可用的居住问题来估计农村和城市地区之间的迁入和迁出。然后，我们使用泊松回归对特定年龄和性别的迁移率进行建模，并通过边际效应估算净迁移率。
结果
结果证实，在两大洲，城市化不是由农村到城市的迁移产生的，而是由城市人口本身产生的，无论是通过自然增长还是通过向周边地区扩张。在亚洲，城市化在更大程度上反映了内部迁移趋势和重新分类决策，而在非洲，自然增长是主要贡献者。
结论
在亚洲，城市化在更大程度上反映了内部迁移趋势和重新分类决策，而在自然增长是主要贡献者的非洲。
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