We begin by showing that every theory of the value of uncertain prospects must have one of three unpalatable properties. Reckless theories recommend giving up a sure thing, no matter how good, for an arbitrarily tiny chance of enormous gain; timid theories permit passing up an arbitrarily large potential gain to prevent a tiny increase in risk; non-transitive theories deny the principle that, if A is better than B and B is better than C, then A must be better than C. Having set up this trilemma, we study its horns. Non-transitivity has been much discussed; we focus on drawing out the costs and benefits of recklessness and timidity when it comes to axiology, decision theory, and normative uncertainty.

中文翻译：

---

微小概率和巨大价值的悖论

我们首先表明，每一种关于不确定前景价值的理论都必须具有三个令人不快的特性之一。鲁莽的理论建议放弃一件确定的事情，不管它有多好，以获得巨大收益的任意微小的机会；胆小的理论允许放弃任意大的潜在收益以防止风险的微小增加；非传递理论否认这样一个原则，即如果A优于B且B优于C，则A必须优于C. 建立了这个三难困境后，我们研究它的角。非传递性已被广泛讨论；当涉及价值论、决策理论和规范不确定性时，我们专注于得出鲁莽和胆怯的成本和收益。