Children's hypothetical reasoning about a complex and dynamic causal system was investigated. Predominantly White, middle-class 5- to 7-year-old children from the Greater Toronto Area learned about novel food chains and were asked to consider the effects of removing one species on the others. In Study 1 (N = 72; 36 females, 36 males; 2018), 7-year-olds answered questions about both direct and indirect effects with a high degree of accuracy, whereas 5-year-olds performed at chance. Six-year-olds showed intermediate performance. Using food chains with clearer constraints, Study 2 (N = 72; 35 females, 37 males; 2020–2021) replicated these findings. These results indicate that the ability to think about hypothetical changes to dynamic causal systems develops between 5 and 7 years. Implications for science education are discussed.

中文翻译：

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儿童对复杂动态系统的假设推理

研究了儿童对复杂动态因果系统的假设推理。来自大多伦多地区的 5 至 7 岁中产阶级儿童（主要是白人）了解了新的食物链，并被要求考虑消除一种物种对其他物种的影响。在研究 1（N  = 72；36 名女性，36 名男性；2018 年）中，7 岁儿童高度准确地回答了有关直接和间接影响的问题，而 5 岁儿童的表现则很偶然。六岁的孩子表现出中等水平。研究 2（ N  = 72；35 名女性，37 名男性；2020-2021 年）使用具有更明确限制的食物链重复了这些发现。这些结果表明，思考动态因果系统假设变化的能力需要 5 到 7 年的时间才能发展。讨论了对科学教育的影响。