This paper presents a model for estimating the amount of distributed generation solar photovoltaics (DGPV) that can be accommodated by an electrical system, limited by the ability of existing generation infrastructure to change output. The model is applied to a region of seven states in the U.S. Midwest, showing the potential for temporary curtailment of installed DGPV to mitigate those constraints, and the associated reductions in coal- and natural gas-fired electricity generation. Scenarios considered are those under which 100%, 99.5%, and 95% of available solar can be utilized, and the point at which DGPV curtailment can no longer mitigate constraints because of the inability of conventional generation to keep pace as solar output declines in the late afternoon.

The model is developed using historical hourly fuel use data for electricity generation, hourly solar capacity factor, and carbon emissions factors. The model includes a generalized linear model, constructed by regression analysis, used to allocate potential reductions in conventional generation in response to demand changes caused by DGPV. Limits on output and ramping of conventional generation are considered and initially mitigated, where possible, by changes in hydroelectric generation.

Results indicate that a substantial amount of DGPV can be accommodated without any changes to current generation infrastructure, and that small amounts of curtailment enable greater DGPV capacity and generation. In a scenario without curtailment, DGPV could provide about 6% of total generation in the modeled region. With just 0.5% curtailment at DGPV installations, roughly 9% of generation could be provided by DGPV. Ultimately, up to 14% of generation could be achieved through DGPV installation before technological limitations would diminish the ability to meet all demand with further increased DGPV.

本文提出了一个模型，该模型用于估计电气系统可容纳的分布式发电太阳能光伏（DGPV）的数量，该模型受现有发电基础设施更改输出的能力的限制。该模型应用于美国中西部七个州的地区，显示了暂时减少已安装的DGPV的潜力，以减轻这些限制，并相应减少燃煤和天然气发电量。考虑的情景是可以利用100％，99.5％和95％的可用太阳能的情景，以及由于常规发电无法随着太阳能产量的下降而无法跟上潮流的情况，减少DGPV的限制不再能够减轻限制的情况。下午晚些时候。

该模型是使用历史每小时燃料使用数据进行发电，每小时太阳能容量系数和碳排放系数开发的。该模型包括通过回归分析构建的广义线性模型，用于分配常规发电量的潜在减少量，以响应DGPV引起的需求变化。考虑并限制了常规发电的输出和斜率限制，并在可能的情况下通过水力发电的变化来减轻这些限制。

结果表明，在不改变当前发电基础设施的情况下，可以容纳大量的DGPV，而少量的削减则可以提高DGPV的容量和发电量。在不缩减的情况下，DGPV可以在建模区域中提供约6％的总发电量。DGPV的安装仅减少0.5％，DGPV可以提供大约9％的发电量。最终，通过安装DGPV最多可以达到14％的发电量，然后技术限制会进一步降低DGPV满足所有需求的能力。