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Committed warming inferred from observations
Nature Climate Change ( IF 30.7 ) Pub Date : 2017-07-31 , DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3357
Thorsten Mauritsen , Robert Pincus

Due to the lifetime of CO2, the thermal inertia of the oceans1,2, and the temporary impacts of short-lived aerosols3,4,5 and reactive greenhouse gases6, the Earth’s climate is not equilibrated with anthropogenic forcing. As a result, even if fossil-fuel emissions were to suddenly cease, some level of committed warming is expected due to past emissions as studied previously using climate models6,7,8,9,10,11. Here, we provide an observational-based quantification of this committed warming using the instrument record of global-mean warming12, recently improved estimates of Earth’s energy imbalance13, and estimates of radiative forcing from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change14. Compared with pre-industrial levels, we find a committed warming of 1.5 K (0.9–3.6, 5th–95th percentile) at equilibrium, and of 1.3 K (0.9–2.3) within this century. However, when assuming that ocean carbon uptake cancels remnant greenhouse gas-induced warming on centennial timescales, committed warming is reduced to 1.1 K (0.7–1.8). In the latter case there is a 13% risk that committed warming already exceeds the 1.5 K target set in Paris15. Regular updates of these observationally constrained committed warming estimates, although simplistic, can provide transparent guidance as uncertainty regarding transient climate sensitivity inevitably narrows16 and the understanding of the limitations of the framework11,17,18,19,20,21 is advanced.



中文翻译:

根据观测结果推断的承诺变暖

由于CO 2的寿命,海洋1,2的热惯性以及短寿命气溶胶3、4、5和反应性温室气体6的暂时影响,地球的气候无法与人为强迫相抵触。结果,即使化石燃料的排放突然停止,由于过去的排放,如先前使用气候模型6,7,8,9,10,11所研究的那样,由于过去的排放,预计还会出现一定程度的变暖。在这里,我们使用全球平均变暖的仪器记录12(最近改进的对地球能量失衡的估计)13提供了基于观测到的对这种持续变暖的量化。以及政府间气候变化专门委员会的第五次评估报告估计的辐射强迫14。与工业化前的水平相比,我们发现在平衡状态下的持续升温为1.5 K(0.9-3.6,第5-95%),在本世纪内为1.3 K(0.9-2.3)。但是,如果假设海洋碳的吸收在百年尺度上抵消了由温室气体引起的残余变暖,则承诺变暖将减少至1.1 K(0.7-1.8)。在后一种情况下,存在13%的风险是持续变暖已超过巴黎15中设定的1.5 K目标。这些定期观测的受约束的变暖估计值的定期更新(尽管很简单)可以提供透明的指导,因为有关瞬态气候敏感性的不确定性不可避免地会缩小16。并且对框架11,17,18,19,20,21的局限性的理解也得到了提高。

更新日期:2017-09-04
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