Energy is one of the cornerstones essential for human life, along with other services such as water and food. Understanding how the different services in the energy-water-food (EWF) nexus interact and are perceived by different actors is key to achieving sustainability. In this paper, we derive a model of the EWF nexus using fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM). Data were collected in a two-step approach from workshops with researchers and stakeholders involved in the three focal sectors. Four FCMs were developed; one for each of the EWF sectors, and one for the interactions that create the nexus between EWF. The FCM represents the combined views of the groups who participated in the workshops, the importance and limitations of which is discussed. To demonstrate its effectiveness, the aggregated FCM was applied to predict the impacts on the EWF nexus of four scenarios under which the United Kingdom would depart from the European Union (i.e. Brexit). The FCM indicated that energy-related concepts had the largest influence on the EWF nexus and that EWF demand will decrease most under a ‘hard-Brexit’ scenario. The demand for energy was shown to decline relatively less than other services and was strongly associated with gross domestic product (GDP), whereas UK population size had a stronger effect on water and food demand. Overall, we found a threefold change across all concepts in scenarios without freedom of movement, contribution to the EU budget, and increased policy devolution to the UK.

能源是人类生活必不可少的基石之一，水和食物等其他服务也是如此。了解能源-水-食品（EWF）关系中的不同服务如何相互作用以及不同参与者如何看待它，是实现可持续性的关键。在本文中，我们使用模糊认知映射（FCM）得出了EWF关联的模型。从研究人员和涉及三个重点领域的利益相关者的研讨会中以两步法收集了数据。开发了四个FCM；一个用于EWF的每个部门，另一个用于在EWF之间建立联系的交互。FCM代表了参加研讨会的小组的综合观点，并讨论了其重要性和局限性。为了证明其有效性，FCM汇总用于预测英国脱离欧盟（即英国退欧）的四种情况对EWF关系的影响。FCM指出，与能源有关的概念对EWF的联系影响最大，在“硬脱欧”的情况下，EWF的需求将减少最多。与其他服务相比，能源需求下降的幅度相对较小，并且与国内生产总值（GDP）密切相关，而英国人口规模对水和粮食需求的影响更大。总体而言，我们发现，在没有行动自由，对欧盟预算有贡献以及政策下放到英国的情况下，所有方案的所有概念都发生了三重变化。FCM指出，与能源有关的概念对EWF的联系影响最大，在“硬脱欧”的情况下，EWF的需求将减少最多。与其他服务相比，能源需求下降的幅度相对较小，并且与国内生产总值（GDP）密切相关，而英国人口规模对水和粮食需求的影响更大。总体而言，我们发现，在没有行动自由，对欧盟预算有贡献以及政策下放到英国的情况下，所有方案的所有概念都发生了三重变化。FCM指出，与能源有关的概念对EWF的联系影响最大，在“硬脱欧”的情况下，EWF的需求将减少最多。与其他服务相比，能源需求下降的幅度相对较小，并且与国内生产总值（GDP）密切相关，而英国人口规模对水和粮食需求的影响更大。总体而言，我们发现，在没有行动自由，对欧盟预算有贡献以及政策下放到英国的情况下，所有方案的所有概念都发生了三重变化。而英国人口规模对水和粮食需求的影响更大。总体而言，我们发现，在没有行动自由，对欧盟预算有贡献以及政策下放到英国的情况下，所有方案的所有概念都发生了三重变化。而英国人口规模对水和粮食需求的影响更大。总体而言，我们发现，在没有行动自由，对欧盟预算有贡献以及政策下放到英国的情况下，所有方案的所有概念都发生了三重变化。