Electrical energy storage could play a pivotal role in future low-carbon electricity systems, balancing inflexible or intermittent supply with demand. Cost projections are important for understanding this role, but data are scarce and uncertain. Here, we construct experience curves to project future prices for 11 electrical energy storage technologies. We find that, regardless of technology, capital costs are on a trajectory towards US$340 ± 60 kWh⁻¹ for installed stationary systems and US$175 ± 25 kWh⁻¹ for battery packs once 1 TWh of capacity is installed for each technology. Bottom-up assessment of material and production costs indicates this price range is not infeasible. Cumulative investments of US$175–510 billion would be needed for any technology to reach 1 TWh deployment, which could be achieved by 2027–2040 based on market growth projections. Finally, we explore how the derived rates of future cost reduction influence when storage becomes economically competitive in transport and residential applications. Thus, our experience-curve data set removes a barrier for further study by industry, policymakers and academics.

电能存储可以在未来的低碳电力系统中发挥关键作用，以平衡不灵活或间歇性的供需。成本预测对于理解该角色很重要，但是数据很少且不确定。在这里，我们构建经验曲线以预测11种电能存储技术的未来价格。我们发现，无论采用何种技术，固定安装系统的资本成本都在340±60 kWh ^-1和175±25 kWh ^-1之间。对于每种技术，一旦为电池组安装了1 TWh的容量，即可使用该电池组。自下而上的材料和生产成本评估表明，这个价格范围是不可行的。任何技术要达到1 TWh的部署量，都需要累计投资175-510亿美元，根据市场增长预测，这将在2027-2040年间实现。最后，我们探讨了当存储在运输和住宅应用中变得具有经济竞争力时，未来成本降低的派生率将如何影响。因此，我们的经验曲线数据集消除了行业，政策制定者和学者进行进一步研究的障碍。